Increasing Water Tensions Between Iran and Afghanistan: Afghanistan’s Dam Projects Threaten Hamoun Wetlands and Sistan

In the silence of Iran’s water diplomacy, news emerges about the filling of the Pashdan Dam in the Harirod water basin, the commencement of the second phase of the Qala-e-Afzal Dam, and the initiation of studies for the Kaj-Samad Dam on the Helmand River. These rivers are the lifelines of Sistan and the Hamoun wetlands, whose future now appears bleak.

According to Salamet News, citing Ham Mihan, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has announced the beginning of studies for the large Kaj-Samad Dam in Farah province. The dam will have a height of 56 meters and a storage capacity of 140 million cubic meters of water, valued at two billion afghanis. Upon completion, 14,000 hectares of agricultural land will be irrigated.

This announcement, made in early January, signals another crisis for the Hamoun wetlands and Sistan. A new dam, in addition to existing storage and diversion dams and water diversion canals in the shared basins with Iran, further exacerbates concerns. After years of warnings about the consequences of Afghanistan’s water projects in shared basins with Iran, news now surfaces about the filling of the Pashdan Dam in the Harirod basin, the second phase completion of the Qala-e-Afzal Dam, and the initial studies for the Kaj-Samad Dam on the Helmand River. These rivers are vital to the survival of Sistan and the Hamoun wetlands, and their future is increasingly uncertain.

The Afghan Ministry of Energy and Water has announced plans for additional dams on the Harirod River, beyond the Selma and Pashdan dams, with Tirpul and Gofgan dams also in the works. The water flowing to the Hamoun wetlands (Pozak, Sabouri, and Helmand) in both Iran and Afghanistan passes through Helmand, Harut, Farah-Rud, and Khash-Rud, where Afghanistan has conducted extensive dam construction in these shared water basins.

Many of these projects are nearing completion, while others are operational. For instance, the Pashdan Dam is in use, the Qala-e-Afzal Dam’s second phase is complete, the Bakhshabad Dam is 40% finished, and initial studies for the Kaj-Samad Dam with a capacity of 150 million cubic meters are underway. Once completed, the latter will irrigate 14,000 hectares of agricultural land.

The Role of Water Diplomacy

Water diplomacy experts emphasize that Iran’s water rights from shared rivers can only be secured through a robust diplomacy strategy. Mohammad Nabi Jalali, a hydropolitics and water diplomacy expert and director of the Strategic Water Diplomacy Think Tank, discusses the implications of these water projects for Iran and Afghanistan’s objectives behind their continuation.

What Are the Consequences of Afghanistan’s Dams?

The survival of Sistan and the Hamoun wetlands depends on several sources of water. One key source is the Helmand River, but Afghanistan’s construction of the Kamal Khan diversion dam, designed to enhance leverage, allows it to direct floodwaters to the Godzareh salt flats. Over the past century, Sistan and the Hamouns have relied on these floods for their survival.

The Kamal Khan Dam’s design reveals its strategic intent. With the construction of a control dam on its left side, named Qala-e-Afzal Dam—whose second phase has recently been completed by the Islamic Emirate—Afghanistan can completely divert water to the Godzareh salt flats. This ensures that even the slightest amount of water inclined to flow toward Iran due to hydraulic gradients is entirely controlled.

In addition to widespread dam construction on the transboundary Helmand River, Afghanistan is now building new dams on other tributaries of the Helmand basin, including Khash-Rud and Farah-Rud. Recently, the Islamic Emirate announced the Kaj-Samad Dam project on Khash-Rud with a capacity of approximately 150 million cubic meters. Moreover, the construction of the Bakhshabad Dam on Farah-Rud, which is significantly advanced, further complicates the situation.

The Broader Implications

Sistan was once the breadbasket of Iran, thriving due to the agricultural economy and cultural dynamics nurtured by the international Hamoun wetlands. It served as the cradle of one of the oldest Islamic-Iranian civilizations. However, with the continuation of these water projects, this civilization is at risk of fading into history.

The destruction of these aquatic ecosystems will lead to widespread poverty in the region, endless migration, and possibly force the remaining population into activities such as fuel smuggling or drug trafficking. The aim appears to be more than ecological destruction; it targets the identity and civilization of Sistan’s people. The potential loss of the Hamoun wetlands and their cultural significance is alarming.

The situation reflects what Nassim Taleb calls a “black swan”—an unforeseen event with significant consequences that, in hindsight, seems predictable. Afghanistan’s actions signify the use of water as the most important tool of power, leveraging it for hydropolitical and security objectives in the region.

Afghanistan’s strategy, particularly on Farah-Rud, seems aimed at enhancing its leverage for future negotiations. For instance, the Bakhshabad Dam’s development has been shrouded in secrecy, making any future negotiations futile, as reversing completed actions is nearly impossible.

Leveraging International Law and Diplomacy

Despite international resolutions recognizing environmental rights as human rights, such as UN Human Rights Council Resolution 48/13 (October 2021) and the General Assembly Resolution (July 2022), their enforceability remains limited. Nonetheless, these resolutions underscore a global consensus, paving the way for the gradual development of international environmental law.

Iran lacks agreements on several other tributaries beyond the Helmand River, including Farah-Rud. Articles 5 and 6 of the Helmand Treaty restrict water rights to drinking and agricultural purposes, neglecting the environmental needs of the Hamoun wetlands. Advocacy for comprehensive agreements covering environmental water rights for the Hamouns is imperative.

Moreover, establishing a legal framework similar to the Helmand Treaty for the Harirod basin, where no agreements exist, should be a priority.

Conclusion

With the ongoing dam projects in Afghanistan, Iran’s inaction could cost it vital water rights. Delayed responses will only weaken its negotiating position. Learning from international examples like Egypt’s approach to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam underscores the need for proactive and multifaceted diplomacy.

Time is of the essence. A comprehensive approach utilizing all power tools, from political leverage to cultural diplomacy, is essential to counter Afghanistan’s unilateral actions and secure a sustainable future for the shared water basins and their ecosystems.